Presidential race: Big little news

[larchmont]

According to the gamblers and where they're putting their money (which IMO is more revealing than polls), Bush is now considered less than 50-50 to win Florida.
(See Tradesports.com)

His percentages have been dropping slowly but surely in recent days, basically since Edwards was named Kerry's running-mate -- not just in Florida, but across the board.

The Florida thing is important for a couple of reasons. First of all, just according to the math, it's going to be a little hard for Bush to come up with the 269 electoral votes (yes, that's the magic number) without Florida.
But besides that, Florida is a bit of an indicator. If Florida falls to Kerry, it's a sign that some other dominoes will probably fall that way too -- the other big one being Ohio.

Which would just about do it.

I'd venture to guess that this factoid means that Bush would be considered virtually hopeless in Florida if not that everybody is assuming there's going to be monkey business there again.

It's the job of the Florida Democrats to do everything they can to prevent that. We can only hope that they're doing it. And if they're not, the Democrats don't deserve to win.

[Ferg]

Good post larch -- brings to mind another of my favorite rants about how much I can't stand the electoral college system. Let everyone vote, count 'em up, and whoever gets the most is the winner, end of story.

[jcg878]

I was really POd when that member of the DC electoral college refused to vote for Gore (who carried DC), as a statement against how the city is not represented in the federal government. It underscores the ridiculousness of the electoral college - she didn't vote for the candidate that the citizens of DC did. No outcome on the election (except that Gore lost by one more electoral vote), but irritating all the same.

http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/12/18/electoral.vote.01/

What's to prevent electors from changing their vote?? That article mentioned that each party tried to woo them to change votes.

[bob shiftright]

The Florida thing is important for a couple of reasons. First of all, just according to the math, it's going to be a little hard for Bush to come up with the 269 electoral votes (yes, that's the magic number) without Florida.
But besides that, Florida is a bit of an indicator. If Florida falls to Kerry, it's a sign that some other dominoes will probably fall that way too -- the other big one being Ohio.Honestly, Larch, it's been a "coin flip" for months now.

Bush's overall odds were last quoted on Tradesports as 52.8%, an amazing number considering what the polls have been showing recently.

Tradesports also quotes odds of 1% for Hillary Clinton, 0.8% for Edwards and 0.8% for "someone else". Iowa Electronic Market gives total odds of something like 2.3% for someone else other than Kerry getting the Dem nomination. The convention for which is 9 days away. WTF? Larch WHAT aren't youse guys telling us???? What IS on that Whoopie Goldberg video????

Tradesports is also giving Bush a 45.9% chance of carrying Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) which he lost in 2000. Florida is 27 electoral votes, +2 from 2000. But Texas picked up 2, Arizona 2, Colorado 1, Georgia 2, Nevada 1, and North Carolina 1...or 30.

My own (cloudy) crystal ball sez that by early August (after the convention) Tradesports will have Bush under 50% and IEM will have the vote-share market close to 50% (+/- 1%). (If Cheney has chest pain and Powell says he's rested, tanned and "ready and willing" to step in, the crystal ball sez Bush's odds shoot up to 80% ... no, WAIT that can't be right!) :D

[HondaMan]

Honestly, Larch, it's been a "coin flip" for months now.

Bush's overall odds were last quoted on Tradesports as 52.8%, an amazing number considering what the polls have been showing recently.

Tradesports also quotes odds of 1% for Hillary Clinton, 0.8% for Edwards and 0.8% for "someone else". Iowa Electronic Market gives total odds of something like 2.3% for someone else other than Kerry getting the Dem nomination. The convention for which is 9 days away. WTF? Larch WHAT aren't youse guys telling us???? What IS on that Whoopie Goldberg video????

Tradesports is also giving Bush a 45.9% chance of carrying Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) which he lost in 2000. Florida is 27 electoral votes, +2 from 2000. But Texas picked up 2, Arizona 2, Colorado 1, Georgia 2, Nevada 1, and North Carolina 1...or 30.

My own (cloudy) crystal ball sez that by early August (after the convention) Tradesports will have Bush under 50% and IEM will have the vote-share market close to 50% (+/- 1%). (If Cheney has chest pain and Powell says he's rested, tanned and "ready and willing" to step in, the crystal ball sez Bush's odds shoot up to 80% ... no, WAIT that can't be right!) :D

Excellent post!

The rest of you...stop complaining about the electoral college already...it's the way things have been done for a long time and just because it didn't go your way last time doesn't mean it's a bad system. :rolleyes:

[larchmont]

.....The rest of you...stop complaining about the electoral college already...it's the way things have been done for a long and just because it didn't go your way last time doesn't mean it's a bad system. :rolleyes:
Would you believe.....I basically agree with HondaMan on this one.

Not that I think people should shut up and stop complaining, because I think it's an important debate.

But I LIKE the electoral college, for a variety of reasons, and I think I'd hate to see it go.

[HondaMan]

Would you believe.....I basically agree with HondaMan on this one.

Not that I think people should shut up and stop complaining, because I think it's an important debate.

But I LIKE the electoral college, for a variety of reasons, and I think I'd hate to see it go.

OMG! Larch agreed with me! :shock:

I also agree with Larch, debating is fine but I never heard negative criticism of the electoral college until Gore lost. :jeffy:

[larchmont]

OMG! Larch agreed with me! :shock:

I also agree with Larch, debating is fine but I never heard negative criticism of the electoral college till Gore lost. :jeffy:
You know, it's not too well known, but it's like this among a lot of Congressmen and Senators on opposite sides of the aisle. They disagree about a lot of the issues, but they agree about some of them, and they share a basic love for the institutions and for the subjects that they deal with. I understand that it's not uncommon for some of these "enemies" to actually privately be best friends.

You know who Orrin Hatch's best friend was for some time, maybe still is?

Ted Kennedy.

[larchmont]

.....I'd venture to guess that this factoid means that Bush would be considered virtually hopeless in Florida if not that everybody is assuming there's going to be monkey business there again.

It's the job of the Florida Democrats to do everything they can to prevent that. We can only hope that they're doing it. And if they're not, the Democrats don't deserve to win.
The Kerry campaign is ahead of the curve on this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/19/politics/campaign/19VOTE.html?hp


Kerry Building Legal Network for Vote Fights

Mindful of the election problems in Florida four years ago, aides to Senator John Kerry...say his campaign is putting together a far more intricate set of legal safeguards than any presidential candidate before him to monitor the election.....The campaign is taking the unusual step of setting up a nationwide legal network under its own umbrella, rather than relying, as in the past, on lawyers associated with state Democratic parties.....recruiting people based on their skills as litigators and election lawyers.....Lawyers for the campaign are gathering intelligence and preparing litigation over the ballot machines being used and the rules concerning how voters will be registered or their votes disqualified. In some cases, the lawyers are compiling dossiers on the people involved and their track records on enforcing voting rights. The disputed 2000 presidential election remains a fresh wound for Democrats, and Mr. Kerry has been referring to it on the stump while assuring his audiences that he will not let this year's election be a repeat of the 2000 vote.

"A million African-Americans disenfranchised in the last election," he said at the N.A.A.C.P. convention in Philadelphia on Thursday. "Well, we're not just going to sit there and wait for it to happen. On Election Day in your cities, my campaign will provide teams of election observers and lawyers to monitor elections, and we will enforce the law.".....


The article goes on to point out that the Republicans are doing sort of the same thing too.